Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.691318 2.875979 3.073689 3.302292 3.560835 3.845986 4.186809
2025-02-16 2.394928 2.639603 2.915980 3.255223 3.666084 4.155384 4.794727
2025-02-23 2.213864 2.491406 2.816655 3.233314 3.764435 4.436356 5.382418
2025-03-02 2.077050 2.374263 2.732450 3.206926 3.837374 4.676739 5.939905
2025-03-09 1.968242 2.278465 2.660975 3.182050 3.899566 4.899317 6.500411
2025-03-16 1.885527 2.207010 2.611505 3.176637 3.980971 5.151548 7.146725
2025-03-23 1.832253 2.167912 2.598735 3.216092 4.125090 5.510488 8.041316
2025-03-30 1.754070 2.091006 2.529529 3.169340 4.134902 5.658170 8.595814
2025-04-06 1.683450 2.019862 2.463038 3.119982 4.133536 5.783950 9.135548
2025-04-13 1.607728 1.938112 2.377211 3.035778 4.068760 5.791940 9.436872
2025-04-20 1.577523 1.915957 2.372144 3.069386 4.193034 6.144937 10.578001
2025-04-27 1.559389 1.908940 2.387236 3.133329 4.372087 6.625257 12.198953
2025-05-04 1.535434 1.893374 2.390031 3.179818 4.529346 7.099017 14.058231
2025-05-11 1.491876 1.848492 2.347895 3.152326 4.553979 7.309669 15.289298
2025-05-18 1.453818 1.809770 2.312762 3.133338 4.591387 7.553560 16.772756
2025-05-25 1.416816 1.771066 2.275711 3.108486 4.614947 7.770865 18.316092
2025-06-01 1.382544 1.734987 2.240892 3.084890 4.638163 7.991717 20.051361
2025-06-08 1.355064 1.707700 2.218077 3.079753 4.696118 8.307247 22.491428
2025-06-15 1.339630 1.697294 2.220407 3.117208 4.841836 8.875496 26.879610
2025-06-22 1.305614 1.658434 2.177073 3.072824 4.816609 8.990192 28.950404
2025-06-29 1.272759 1.620361 2.133616 3.025943 4.782213 9.074941 31.007008
2025-07-06 1.233800 1.572261 2.072963 2.945905 4.672070 8.929577 31.331885
2025-07-13 1.222040 1.564311 2.075197 2.977859 4.803392 9.510310 38.407470